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Update of the Bank of Israel’s macroeconomic forecasts for 2010

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GDP is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2010 (compared with 2.5 percent in the previous forecast). The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 7.1 percent on average, consistent with a level of less than 7 percent at the end of 2010.

Growth is being led by an increase in the demand for exports resulting from the recovery in the global economy. Domestic uses are increasing more slowly than exports, except for investment and the consumption of durables which are rising rapidly. The buoyant increase in the consumption of durables and in investment in machinery, equipment and transportation vehicles brings in its wake a surge in imports, so that the surplus in the current account is expected to contract.

The main risk in the forecast is that of a slower recovery in the global economy than that on which the forecast is based.

 

Main economic indicators, forecasts for 2009 and 2010 and the previous forecast

 

 

2009 CBS estimate 31.12.09

2010 estimate (previous estimate in parentheses)*

 
 
 

Main results (rates of change, percent, unless stated otherwise)

 

1.  GDP

0.5

3.5 (2.5)

 

2.  Business sector product

–0.4

4.1 (2.8)

 

3.  Exports (excluding diamonds)

–11.0

8.6 (6.2)

 

4.  Private consumption

1.1

4.8 (1.1)

 

4.a. of which excluding durables

2.2

3.1 (2.2)

 

5.  Gross domestic investment

–9.4

9.3 (1.9)

 

5.a. of which fixed investment

–6.7

4.9 (2.0)

 

6.  Civilian imports (excluding diamonds)

–13.4

11.4 (7.3)

 

7.  Current account ($ billion)

7.2

3.0 (4.9)

 

8.  Unemployment rate (percent)

7.7

7.1 (8.3)

 

* The previous estimate was published on 1 September 2009

 

 

 

The main assumptions underlying the forecast for 2010 (previous assumptions in parentheses)

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

World trade–– an increase of 7 percent (4.4 percent)

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

Terms of trade––a deterioration of 2.1 percent (3.0 percent)

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

Public expenditure––an increase of 0.6 percent (1.8 percent)

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

Public consumption––an increase of 1.0 percent (1.0 percent)

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

Per capita transfer payments––an increase of 1.8 percent (1.3 percent )

https://www.boi.gov.il/images/blueball.gif 

VAT––16 percent (16.5 percent); Corporate tax––25 percent (25 percent)

 

 

 

 



 

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